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Football / Analysis / Time Of 1St Goal 1 10 Mins

Time of 1st goal 1-10 mins

Bettorlogic analyse the effect of a goal scored in the first 10 minutes on the Over Goals markets and how that varies across the major leagues.

Freiburg's Du-Ri Cha





1st goal scored 0-5 minutes

There’s no great difference amongst the leagues in the percentage of matches that produce a goal in the first five minutes. Eredivisie has the highest return at 11%, Ligue 1 and Serie A the lowest at 8%. It’s what happens subsequently that gets more interesting.

With the exception of Ligue 1 (90%) all the leagues return +1.5 goals in 94%-96% of matches but there are significant differences in the percentage of matches that go to +2.5 and +3.5. 85% of Bundesliga matches have had more than two goals with a goal in the first five minutes and that rises to 90% when the home team has netted first which suggests the market in such circumstances should be priced at around 1.11. La Liga comes in at 72% but 80% when the visitors take the lead; Serie A 71% regardless of who scores; the Premier League 74% with a rise to 78% when the away team has scored; the Dutch have had 81% with  84% applicable to the away team and Ligue 1 a much more lowly 65% but 70% when the visitors score first.

However for the Premier League and Serie A in the +3.5 goals market, there’s a drop when the away team scores first  – 49% to 47% and 48% to 44% respectively, with both suggesting the market should be priced at around 2.0 when the home team takes the lead. Yet again the Bundesliga leads the way with a 64% conversion for matches with three goals or more with little difference depending on which team scores. The greatest difference has been with the Dutch as 57% overall have had +3.5 goals but rising to 64% when the away team scores compared to 52% for the home team. La Liga may produce only 46% +3.5 overall but it’s 55% when visitors score and 40% for the hosts. As expected, Ligue 1 are the languishers with 39% producing +3.5 goals which is 25% less than the Germans.

 

  Home Team Scores Away team scores All teams
League Mins +1.5 +2.5 +3.5 +1.5 +2.5 +3.5 +1.5 +2.5 +3.5
Prem 0-5 1.04 1.41 2 1.05 1.28 2.13 1.05 1.35 2.04
Serie A 0-5 1.06 1.39 1.96 1.05 1.45 2.27 1.06 1.41 2.08
La Liga 0-5 1.1 1.49 2.5 1.02 1.25 1.82 1.06 1.39 2.17
Bundesliga 0-5 1.03 1.11 1.59 1.08 1.27 1.54 1.05 1.18 1.56
Ligue 1 0-5 1.12 1.64 2.7 1.1 1.43 2.38 1.11 1.54 2.56
Eredivisie 0-5 1.05 1.28 1.92 1.03 1.19 1.56 1.04 1.23 1.75

 Odds conversion based on % return

1st goal scored 6-10 mins

As you would expect, the percentages drop by about 3% across the goal markets when the first goal comes between six and ten minutes. However there are some significant differences. When the home team scores first in the Bundesliga, +1.5 goals falls from 97% to 87% and the very high 90% of +2.5 drops appreciably to 71% after the five minute mark (85%-68% overall) and from 63% to 55% in the +3.5 market.

In France, Spain and Italy there is approximately a 5% increase when the away team scores first in this period to around 90% for +1.5, 70%-76% for +2.5 and around 50% for +3.5 (Ligue 1 44%). In the Premier League there is a significant reverse.  +2.5 goal matches are 12% greater when the home team scores first (73%) and  13% more  for +3.5 (51%). In Holland, there has been approximately a 5% increase in the +2.5 and +3.5 when the hosts net first but in the +1.5 only one of the 70 matches to date has had no more goals when the away team has scored, which suggests the market should be as low as 1.01.

 

  Home Team Scores Away team scores All teams
League Mins +1.5 +2.5 +3.5 +1.5 +2.5 +3.5 +1.5 +2.5 +3.5
Prem 6-10 1.08 1.37 1.96 1.15 1.64 2.63 1.09 1.47 2.17
Serie A 6-10 1.15 1.43 2.08 1.06 1.32 1.89 1.11 1.37 2
La Liga 6-10 1.12 1.47 2.22 1.11 1.41 2.08 1.15 1.45 2.17
Bundesliga 6-10 1.15 1.41 1.82 1.06 1.56 1.92 1.11 1.47 1.85
Ligue 1 6-10 1.1 1.56 2.63 1.06 1.43 2.27 1.09 1.49 2.5
Eredivisie 6-10 1.06 1.27 1.72 1.01 1.35 1.85 1.04 1.3 1.79

 Odds conversion based on % return


Key Stats

 

  • There is a significant difference in the Bundesliga when the home team has scored in the first five minutes with 90% of matches finishing with more than two goals compared to 71% when the goal is scored between minutes 6-10.
  • In La Liga, 80% of matches produce more than two goals when the away team has scored before the six minute mark compared to 68% when the home team has netted.
  • In Eredivisie, 64% of matches have produced +3.5 goals when the away team scores in the first five minutes compared to 52% when it’s been the hosts.
  • In the Premier League there is a 12% increase in the +2.5 market when the home team (73%) rather than the away team has scored first between minutes 6-10 and a 13% rise in the +3.5 (51%).  


With Form Lab PRO as well as analysing the effect of a goal from an all team perspective,  you can also do so on an individual team basis and therefore what position you should take depending on how the match develops.

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