Key Stats

• 11/20 winners since 1990 have been seeded 1 or 2, while just 3/40 finalists have been unseeded.
• Number One seeds have made at least the semis in 11 of the last 15 years, winning five times. The only seed to make as many semi-final appearances in this time is the 4th seed, although they’ve lifted the trophy just twice.
• In the past three years three of the four semi-finalists have been top-four seeds. However, only once in the last 20 have all the top-four seeds made the semis.
• 11/12 US Open finalists in the past six years made the final at either the Cincinnati Masters or the Rogers Cup – this year that was Roger Federer, Andy Murray, and Mardy Fish.
• Since 1990 13/20 winners have won a US hard court tournament since Wimbledon, including six of the last seven, as have 11/20 runners-up including each of the last six. This year the US hard court winners since Wimbledon are Sam Querrey, Fish, David Nalbandian, Murray and Federer.

Quarter One

Rafael Nadal will be fairly happy with his draw, and while Philipp Kohlschreiber has the potential to test him as he did when taking a set in Toronto, he pulled out in Cincinnati with a right shoulder injury and the Spaniard should have no problems. He’s then scheduled to meet Ivan Ljubicic, who’s won only one match since the French Open.

The seedings would suggest that Fernando Verdasco will meet him in the quarters but given his current form that would be a major surprise. Instead look for the champion in Washington David Nalbandian, the improving Ernests Gulbis or 10th seed David Ferrer to challenge. On their day any of these three have the skill to beat Nadal, who has been below his best since Wimbledon, and the World Number One has dropped sets in each of his seven matches against Nalbandian and Gulbis.

Quarter Two

Andy Murray has been handed the toughest draw of the Big Four as he must beat Stanislas Wawrinka, who memorably took the Scot to five sets in the first indoor match at Wimbledon in 2009, then LA Champion Sam Querrey, who won that title by beating Murray, before a quarter-final with Tomas Berdych.

As such the Scot will surely hope for some upsets with Wawrinka highly inconsistent and Querrey seemingly unable to replicate the form he shows at smaller events when he gets to the majors. Moreover, he’d really like to avoid Berdych, with the Czech having thrashed him at Roland Garros this year and being inspired for most of 2010. The most likely stumbling block for the Wimbledon finalist comes in the giant shape of marathon man John Isner, who made his breakthrough here a year ago when he stunned Andy Roddick and will be hoping the ankle he injured in Cincinnati has healed.

Quarter Three

The top three seeds in this section – Novak Djokovic, Nikolay Davydenko, and Andy Roddick – have all been struggling with form and fitness issues, making this the most open part of the draw. Djokovic has made the semis or better in each of the past three years, and lost to Federer on each occasion, so has excellent tournament form, but he has struggled for consistency in the two recent Masters events and a first round match against his countryman Victor Troicki who’s currently playing well in New Haven would not have been what he was hoping for. However, the third seed’s major problem will surely be a fourth round meeting with Mardy Fish or Marcos Baghdatis.

Baghdatis has won all three of his past meetings with Fish, including twice in Australia at the start of the year, but the American is far fitter now and is playing the best tennis of his career. Should the Serb get past this point he will likely face former champion Roddick, who looked to have rediscovered some form in Cincinnati and has won his last four meetings with Djokovic.

Quarter Four

Roger Federer has reached 25 consecutive Grand Slam quarter-finals and has practically owned Flushing Meadows for the past six years to move level with Jimmy Conors and Pete Sampras for the most US Open titles in the Open Era with five. The Swiss has won 41 of 42 matches at the US Open since 2004 and only twice has he dropped more than one set; to Igor Andreev in 2008 and when beaten in last year’s final by Juan Martin Del Potro.

The three seeds in his “16” – Lleyton Hewitt, Jurgen Melzer and Juan Carlos Ferrero – have all been out of form or injured, and should offer little threat to the quarter-final streak.

However, life should get harder in the next round with Robin Soderling or Marin Cilic likely to be waiting for him. While neither has been in the best of form both have the ability to play their way into tournaments, as the Swede has done at the past two French Opens and Cilic did here a year ago. Moreover, Soderling has won his last two meetings with Federer and beat Cilic in straight sets at this year’s French Open.

Our View

In the top half Nadal should progress to the semi-final, but he’s never been past that point here and it wouldn’t be a total surprise if he lost earlier given the form he showed in the two recent Masters events. In the final four Murray looks the obvious opponent for Nadal but given the fast conditions more closely mirror Cincinnati, where the Scot was unconvincing, than Toronto where he excelled, the fact he’s only once been past the fourth round here make him also one to avoid at his current price. Furthermore, this could be the perfect opportunity for Berdych to continue his Grand Slam successes this year.

Federer has had his best pre-US Open Masters results in Cincinnati and Canada since having the same results in 2007 (RU in the Rogers Cup in Canada and then winning Cincinnati) and the Swiss’ game looks in the best shape it’s been in all year. While he faces a tough quarter-final match he overturned some recent losses against Berdych in Toronto and would expect to do the same to Soderling.

Historically the US have provided at least one semi-finalist, although only two Americans have reached that stage in the last six years, and the home crowd may well have someone to support, with Mardy Fish looking the best value option to come out of the third quarter.

It’s important to note when looking for a winner that the semis and final are played on consecutive days here, and that seven of the past nine winners had to play fewer games in their semi, and Federer would look to have the easier of the semis should he reach that point.

Recommendation: Federer to win at 3.4, Sporting Bet
                                   0.5 pt Berdych to win at 23 e/w, Boyles