The Shanghai Masters 1000 returns for its second year as the culmination of the Tour’s Asian Swing. A Masters level tournament has been a fixture at this stage in the calendar since 1990 with Madrid hosting the tournament since 2002 and before that Stuttgart (1996-2001), Essen (1995), and Stockholm (1990-1994) were the venues. Historically this was an indoor Masters with indoor hard-courts used since 1999 and carpet before that, however, like last year this event will be played on outdoor hard courts.

The Tennis Masters Cup was held at this venue between 2005 and 2008 although that was also held indoors.

Remarkably the last 15 Masters events held directly after the US Open have been won by different players.

Key Stats

• 5/10 US Open finalists that played the Madrid/Shanghai Masters (2002-2009) reached the final with four going on to win.
• 7/8 Madrid/Shanghai Masters winners had won a hard-court tournament post-Wimbledon that season.
• 0/17 finalists the week before the Madrid/Shanghai Masters won, with only three reaching the final.
• 13/20 winners of this Masters event since 1990 had not won a Masters tournament earlier that season.
• 3/20 finalists since 1990 have not played since the US Open.

Quarter 1

Rafael Nadal (4) has been enjoying a phenomenal year and produced some superb tennis at the US Open to complete his career Grand Slam. He was a finalist here a year ago and has a good record in China having won Olympic Gold in Beijing two years ago. However, he’s coming off a win in Japan where he had to survive match points against Troicki in the semis and the week before in Bangkok he was upset by Garcia-Lopez.

Furthermore he’s been handed a very tough start with Gilles Simon (151) or Stanislas Wawrinka (151) first up, although his prospective quarter-final opponents Fernando Verdasco (70) or Nikolay Davydenko (45) have been in terrible form for months.

Quarter 2

At his best Andy Murray (9) should move through this quarter with ease, however the chances of that look rather bleak at the moment. Since winning in Toronto Murray’s been a pale imitation of the two-time Grand Slam finalist and Radek Stepanek (251) in his first match or Almagro/Dolgopolov/Baghdatis in the following round all have the potential to cause an upset as his collective record against the four is just W7-L5.

Instead, the man in form in this quarter is US Open semi-finalist and recent Kuala Lumpur champion Mikhail Youzhny (51) – last year’s Malaysian champion Davydenko went on to claim the title here. The Russian is due to face Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (51) in his second match but given the Frenchman lost his first match since returning from three months out injured last week, the dangerous Sam Querrey (101) could be a more likely opponent. 

Quarter 3

Roger Federer (5.5) headlines this quarter, but having not played since the US Open the Swiss will not be relishing an opening match against the big-hitting John Isner (81), who looked to be playing well last week in Beijing and has very few points to defend till the end of the year. The good news for Federer is that two of the other seeds in this quarter, Robin Soderling (30) and particularly Marin Cilic (67), are not enjoying the best of form.

David Ferrer is maintaining is excellent season and after a semi-final showing in Kuala Lumpur and reaching the final in Beijing he can expect to be firmly bedded in the top-10 by the year’s end given his lack of points to defend. However, a W0-L11 record against Federer suggests if he reaches the quarters he might need someone to have disposed of the World Number Three before then. 

Quarter 4

Novak Djokovic (6.5) won the China Open last year and has won indoors at this venue in the 2008 Masters Cup. Furthermore, his form in the second week of the US Open was as good as he’s shown since winning the 2008 Australian Open and he’s carried that through to the Asian Swing as he’s reached the China Open final in impressive style.

The Serb’s route should see him face Ivan Ljubicic (101) in the second round, who seems to have found some form again but has lost six of his last seven matches against Djokovic, and then Gael Monfils (41) who reached the final in Tokyo but has lost all five of his past meetings with the Serb and is likely to be fatigued. Djokovic’s quarter-final opponent should then be either Tomas Berdych (41) or Andy Roddick (34), although with both struggling for form it would be no surprise if neither reached that point.

Our View

Of the big four Nadal and Djokovic are both in excellent form while Murray appears to be struggling without a coach and Federer hasn’t played since the US Open. While they have all won a hard-court title since Wimbledon, the relatively good record of US Open finalists and current form of the top two mean they look the best value of the top four seeds to reach the final despite both coming off finals performances last week. 

Out of the two though, Djokovic looks the better value given his more comfortable passage through the tournament in Beijing and the fact this will be Nadal’s third consecutive week of playing. Also, the Serb is yet to claim a Masters title this year and that extra incentive could give him a crucial edge.

Of the rest, current form suggests Youzhny looks very capable of coming out of Murray’s quarter while Ferrer and Isner both carry a good outsider’s threat in Federer’s. Furthermore, Youzhny is the only seed here outside the top four to have won a hard-court title since Wimbledon.