The World Cup betting is currently headed by Brazil (3.55), from  Spain (4.0), Argentina (5.9) and Germany (8.6). A look at the starting players for these teams shows that their performances and favouritism should have come as no surprise.

The starting 11 for Brazil features nine players that play in one of Europe’s Big Five leagues and have played and missed at least 10 games for their clubs over the past two seasons (nb an appearance means they started and played at least an hour). Of those nine players seven had a positive affect for their clubs when they played while two were negative. The most significant of these players were Juan, Michel Bastos and Elano (in his 08/09 season for Manchester City) whose teams earned more than 30% fewer points per game when they were missing than when they played.

Similarly, Argentina have seven players who fit the criteria of which five were positive for their clubs and two negative, although none of those positive had as much of an affect as the top three Brazilians.

Impressively, of Spain’s eight players fitting the criteria seven have been positive for their club’s, with Valencia picking up 42% fewer points per game without David Villa than with him. Likewise, four of six German starters have been positive with one level and one negative. However, none of those positives have been particularly significant.

Interestingly, both Italy and France selected more players with a negative affect for their clubs than positive in their starting elevens for their opening matches. Six of 10 France players that lined up against Uruguay saw their clubs earn more points per game without them, with the same number also applying to the Italians’ line-up against Paraguay. Furthermore, the Italian captain Fabio Cannavaro was statistically the worst of all the players for these teams mentioned as he played 26 of Juventus’ 38 matches last season with a PPG of 1.19 compared to the Old Lady’s average of two points per game without him – a 68% increase.