Since 1995/96 74/77 teams that were top-six finishers in the previous season and then in the top six after 15 games went on to finish in the top half, while only once (1/60) have one of the current Big Four failed to finish in the top 10 (Chelsea were 11th in 1995/96). As such there look to be six top-half places locked up already.

Back in August we highlighted how runaway Championship winners have tended to fare well in their promoted season in the Premier League and Newcastle have backed up that trend. West Brom have also impressed so far, although the biggest surprise has been the continuing good form of Blackpool.

Since 1995/96 7/13 promoted teams in the top half after 15 games have finished there, while 6/18 promoted sides placed 8th-16th and no more than four points off 10th have finished in the top half. However, the four teams Blackpool are yet to play are all currently in the top eight and play-off winners have a particularly poor record in the second half of the season. Meanwhile West Brom host Newcastle this weekend and should one team win they will have a strong chance of a top-half finish.

The team that looks best placed after the ‘Big Six’ is Bolton, as 8/9 teams that have finished in the bottom-half the previous year but been 3-5 points clear of 10th at this stage have finished in the top 10, with the other side finishing just one point back in 11th.

Interestingly, four of the five teams that finished 6th-10th last season are now sitting 11th-16th and in the past just 6/18 teams that finished 6th-10th the previous term and were 0-3pts off 10th finished in the top 10 – although there have never been four teams in this position in the same year. Everton have the best team on paper but given they’re in the worst position, are about to play Chelsea away, and are just 1.29 to finish in the top half, they look far too short and are a better lay-to-back option given their strong finishes in recent seasons (they’ve averaged 1.79 PPG in their final 13 matches in the past three years and have a relatively kind final 13 games this term too). Instead Birmingham at 4.0 and Aston Villa at 1.8 look better value.

Given just 2/21 teams to be 4-7 points off 10th and in the bottom four have come back to reach the top half that just leaves Stoke and Sunderland as other potential top-10 teams. 8/20 sides to be 0-2 points clear of 10th that were bottom-half finishers the previous campaign have ended in the top half, including exactly one in 6/7 seasons where two teams were in this position.

Bolton have been in great form and history suggests they are value for a top-half finish, while Stoke also look value in relation to Sunderland. Given that just four points separate 16th from 7th and the record of promoted teams worsening after a good start we’d still avoid the new teams. Instead Birmingham could be the surprise top-half finishers given their improving form and that 3/10 promoted teams to finish in the top 10 followed that with another top-half position the following year.

Recommendation: Bolton to finish top-half in the Premier League at 1.73, Stan James
                                   Stoke to finish top-half at 3.2, Bet365
                                   Birmingham to finish top-half at 4.0, Victor Chandler
                                   Lay Everton to finish top-half at 1.30, Betfair