Football / Reaction / Premier League Relegation Update

Premier League Relegation Update

A third of the way through the season and the pressure is mounting for clubs at the wrong end of the table.

Wolves boss Mick McCarthy

 

13 games into the Premier League season and West Ham are stuck at the foot of the table alongside Wolves on nine points and face a long relegation battle for the rest of the season.

Since 1995/96 14 of 19 teams to be bottom or level on points at this stage have finished in the drop zone, although both teams will be glad to know that this ratio improves to 9/14 for non-promoted teams including just one of three sides when they had at least nine points by this point.

However, one of these teams will almost certainly still be in the bottom-three come the end of the season as in five previous years where the bottom two have been non-promoted sides one team has been relegated four times and both went on the other occasion. Furthermore, there have been eight separate seasons where at least one non-promoted team was 3-5 points from safety (12 teams in total) and in seven of those years one side was relegated.

The other relegated teams will likely come from the current bottom six despite the congested nature of the table, as 39 of 45 relegated teams have been bottom-six sides at this stage, and while the poor record of promoted teams might make Newcastle and West Brom still relegation candidates just four of 23 promoted sides above the bottom six have ended in the bottom three.

Blackpool have enjoyed a good start but from 44 promoted teams since 1995/96 these sides’ average 0.10 fewer points per game till the end of the season, including 0.21 PPG fewer for the 15 playoff winners. Furthermore, the 30 promoted teams to be above the bottom three at this stage have seen their PPG fall by 0.20 for the rest of the season with the 10 playoff winners in this position dropping 0.33 PPG.

As such it’s no surprise that 8/10 playoff winners in the bottom-half at this stage have been relegated, as well as 4/5 that were 3-6 points clear of the drop-zone. Overall, Blackpool look value to go down at 1.8, although with them hosting Wolves this weekend and the other four teams below them playing either a Big Four side or Man City they could find themselves in a better position come Monday.

We advised Wigan and Wolves to go down at the start of the season and would expect those two to be fighting it out against Blackpool and West Ham. While the Hammers currently look in big trouble they are expected to invest in January and their current price is probably a fair one.

Recommendation: Blackpool to be relegated at 1.80, Betfair
 

 
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