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NB: Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least 60 minutes. The sample is based on a team’s home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

AC Milan v Lazio

AC Milan’s Brazilian star Pato will miss their home game against Lazio with a recurrence to his recent hamstring injury and over the past couple of seasons Milan have really struggled without him. The Brazilian forward is easily Milan’s leading scorer since the start of last season with his 25 goals putting him 11 clear of anyone else, and his absence could be a massive blow as they look to overtake Inter at the top of Serie A.

Pato has played 40 games for Milan since the start of last season while missing 27, and when deprived of his goals Milan’s average goals scored falls from 1.93 per game to just 1.52. The knock-on effect of this has been for the number of games with over 2.5 goals to fall from 63% with Pato to just 33% without.

Not surprisingly, Milan’s results have suffered badly without Pato as their win rate has fallen from 62% to 52% and recently they’ve won all of their last eight with him compared to just two of the last seven without. Overall their average points per game has been 17% higher with the one-time Chelsea target at 2.10 compared to 1.81, and while they’ve been leading at half-time in 48% of the matches he’s played they’ve drawn the first half in 56% of those he’s missed.

Milan come into this game as massive favourites and after Inter’s recent indifferent form domestically a win here could send them top if their rivals fail to take maximum points this weekend. However, without Pato this looks to be a tighter affair than expected.

Chelsea v Aston Villa

Carlo Ancelotti has witnessed his Chelsea stars crash out of the Champions League to Jose Mourinho’s Inter, and then lose crucial ground in the Premier League during the past couple of weeks and his hopes of becoming the first Chelsea manager since Mourinho to win the league are looking increasingly unlikely.

While there is good news for Chelsea fans in the return to fitness of Petr Cech, the Blues defensive problems have been hit by another blow with Branislav Ivanovic out for a month with knee ligament damage. This leaves Ancelotti with a dilemma at the back as he’s already missing Jose Bosingwa and Ashley Cole in the full-back positions.

Since the start of last season Ivanovic has played 32 and missed 36 of Chelsea’s league games, and while there is little difference in their results (Chelsea have averaged 2.19 points per game with compared to 2.17 without) there is a significant drop in the number of matches with over 2.5 goals when he doesn’t play – down from 59% to 47%.

Bolton v Man Utd

Man Utd have had the look of champions in recent weeks and any hopes of an upset at the Reebok Stadium look slim indeed. Bolton’s chances have also been hit by the loss of Icelandic defender Gretar Steinsson who is serving a suspension following his red card at Everton. Steinsson has established himself as a regular in the Trotters defence and it would appear with good reason, as Bolton have lost eight of the 13 matches he’s missed since signing for them. As a result their PPG has dropped from 1.14 with him to just 0.69 without, and their average goals conceded has risen from 1.50 per game to 1.92.

Leverkusen v Schalke

Leverkusen’s faltering challenge for the Bundesliga faces another potential stumbling block this weekend as they travel to second placed Schalke without the league’s leading scorer Stefan Kiessling. Remarkably Kiessling had played in all of Leverkusen’s 61 matches since the start of last season until he went off injured last weekend against Dortmund. However, Leverkusen who were unbeaten this season until a few weeks ago, went on to lose that match 3-0 and given Kiessling’s importance Schalke look worth supporting at for the win.

Man City v Wigan

Joleon Lescott will miss Monday night’s game at Eastland’s against Wigan after suffering a hamstring injury in training that threatens to keep him out for up to six weeks. However, the former Everton defender has failed to consistently show the form that lead to his £24 million move last summer and City may well be better off without him for this game.

In the 17 games Lescott has played for City they’ve lost only once. However, they’ve drawn a massive 11 times and their PPG has been 37% higher at 2.10 without him as City have recorded seven wins in 10 games.