Click Here to subscribe to Player PRO to find out which players really make a difference and have a free 14 day trial.
NB: Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least 60 minutes. The sample is based on a team’s home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.
Hoffenheim v Leverkusen
Hoffenheim are without a win in five games and their troubles have been compounded by the loss of Senegalese striker Demba Ba, after he sustained a thigh injury in their 2-0 loss at Bayern Munich last weekend.
Since the start of last season Ba has been an integral part of the Hoffenheim team, as he’s played 42 of 52 games and last term missed just one game. The big striker’s impact appears significant, as Hoffe average 1.90 goals per game with him compared to just one goal per game without, and up against the undefeated league leaders they look likely to struggle with those sorts of stats.
As a result of their lack of goals Hoffenheim’s results have also dropped off without Ba, with their PPG falling from 1.62 down to just 1.20. More significantly has been the drop in the number of matches with over 2.5 goals when Ba hasn’t been playing, which are down from 62% with him – including six of nine games this season – to 40% without, including just three of nine this term.
Livorno v Napoli
Promoted Livorno travel to Napoli without two of their key defenders, with Leonardo Miglionico and Dario Knezevic both struggling with injuries. Both players have played and missed 10 games for Livorno this season, with Miglionico averaging 1.30 points per game in the 10 games he’s played and Knezevic 1.50 PPG in his 10. This is compared to Livorno’s average of 0.80 PPG without Miglionico and 0.60 without Knezevic respectively. Both players have seen a 70% increase in Livorno’s goals conceded when they haven’t played – up from 1.0 goal per game conceded to 1.70.
Furthermore, in the six games they have played together Livorno have conceded just 0.83 goals per game compared to 1.57 in the 14 where at least one has been absent. As a result they are yet to have a game with three or more goals when both have been playing, whilst without this defensive axis in place half of Livorno’s 14 games have had over 2.5 goals.
Sevilla v Almeria
Abdoulay Konko is injured for Sevilla ahead of their match with Almeria this weekend. The French winger has become an important player for Sevilla since moving from Genoa at the start of last season and in the 23 matches he’s played they’ve averaged two points per game, while in the 33 he’s missed their PPG is 18% lower at 1.64. This difference is even more pronounced at home, with Sevilla’s PPG at 2.09 from 11 matches with Konko, compared to 1.59 from the 17 he’s missed. This drop in results is largely down to their reduced ability to find the net without Konko as their average goals scored at home are down from 2.09 per game with the former Genoa man, to just 1.24 per game without him.
With Konko injured, and Didier Zokora still away at the African Cup of Nations, Almeria should be able to take advantage of Sevilla’s terrible run of form.
Juventus v Roma
Juventus are struggling with injuries and are in a run of poor results, while Roma are in their best form for some time. The Old Lady has recently have recently added on-loan full-back Martin Caceres to their lengthy injury list. They have struggled when he has been out of the team this season, winning only five of 12 matches whilst losing four times. These matches have also tended to produce fewer goals than the eight games the Barcelona owned player has been in, with 63% of the matches he’s played having over 2.5 goals compared with just 42% of the 12 he’s missed.
Roma have recently tightened up there defence with a series of clean sheets and this looks likely to be a tight match.