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NB: Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least 60 minutes. The sample is based on a team’s home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.
Fulham v Portsmouth
Portsmouth have recorded a couple of wins recently and one of the major reasons for that has been the excellent form of Kevin-Prince Boateng who has been called up by Ghana for the African Cup of Nations.
Boateng has missed only three matches since signing from Spurs earlier this season and those games have seen Pompey find the net just once, compared to 16 goals in 14 with him. Moreover, they have trailed at half-time in all three of the matches he’s missed.
The South coast side will also be without two other forwards with Ivorian Aruna Dindane and Nigerian Nwanku Kanu both away in Angola. While Kanu has been a peripheral figure at Fratton Park this season, Dindane has played a central role; scoring four goals (and missing countless other chances) while helping Portsmouth to three wins in nine appearances. In contrast, when he has been missing Pompey have lost seven of eight games with six loss/loss doubles on the half-time/full-time market.
Sevilla v Racing
Sevilla have won only one of their last five matches and will be unable to call upon one of their main strikers for the rest of the month while Frédéric Kanouté is away at the African Cup of Nations playing for Mali.
The former Hammer’s importance to Sevilla is highlighted by the 21 goals he has scored in 33 appearances since the start of last season which makes him Sevilla’s leading scorer. More significantly however, is the fact that Sevilla’s win percentage had fallen from 60% with Kanouté to just 48% in the 21 games he’s missed. As a result their PPG has fallen by 15% from 1.97 to 1.67.
Not surprisingly, without Kanouté’s goals Sevilla’s average goals-scored have fallen by 21% from 1.64 per game to just 1.29 and as a result there have been fewer than three goals in 62% of the matches Kanouté’s missed compared with 55% with him.
Furthermore, Sevilla will also be missing another first team player with Didier Zokora away, and since his arrival Sevilla have won eight of 12 matches with him compared to just one of four without.
Juventus v Milan
Mohamed Sissoko has become a regular in the Juventus team since his move from Liverpool two years ago, and the stats suggest with good reason. Since the start of last season Sissoko has played 21 and missed 35 of Juve’s matches with The Old Lady’s win percentage falling from 67% to 49% without him and their PPG dropping by 17% from 2.14 to 1.77. This has largely been down to their defence being weakened by his absences as their average goals-conceded have risen from 0.86 to 1.17 per game. As a result there’s been a slight increase in over 2.5 goals matches without Sissoko, although against an in-form and free-scoring Milan team that affect may well be exaggerated.
Udinese v Lazio
Kojo Asamoah has impressed for Udinese since the start of last season and become a key part of their midfield. Since the opening 10 games in 2008/09, Udinese have played 19 games without the Ghanaian and suffered 11 defeats as they’ve averaged just 0.84 PPG. This compares very poorly to their return of 1.50 PPG from the 26 matches Asamoah’s played. However, with Lazio coming to town, they do at least welcome the lowest scoring team on the road this season and it is significant that eight of Udinese’s last nine games against bottom-half teams have been level at the break when Asamoah has been missing.