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NB: Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least 60 minutes. The sample is based on a team’s home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.
Arsenal v Fulham
With the Europa Cup final on Wednesday night Roy Hodgson can be expected to rotate his squad against the Gunners, with Damien Duff and Bobby Zamora both carrying knocks that are sure to rule them out of the trip to the Emirates. Duff has played 27 and missed nine of Fulham’s games this season and with him the Cottagers have averaged 1.33 PPG as they’ve lost only nine times. However, without him, they’ve lost six of nine matches and picked up just seven points, with five of the defeats also seeing Fulham fail to score.
Wolves v Sunderland
Lee Cattermole suffered a dislocated shoulder in training during the week as his injury curse has hit again just as he looked to be regaining full fitness after a series of other injuries during his debut season with the Black Cats. With the former Wigan midfielder, the Mackems have earned 1.46 PPG from 13 matches while without him this has dropped to just 1.04 PPG in the 24 he’s missed as their defence has leaked 28% more goals per game without his dogged presence.
Bordeaux v Sochaux
Yoann Gourcuff injured his hamstring last month at Lorient and is unlikely to feature in Bordeaux’s final two games of the season. The French playmaker has missed 14 of Bordeaux’s 74 matches since the start of last season, with last years Ligue 1 champions scoring just 12 goals in those games compared to netting 1.75 goals per game with him. Furthermore, Bordeaux have won only three times without France’s reigning player of the year and the fact that he’s already missed 11 matches this season goes someway to explaining his team’s disappointing season.
Tenerife v Almeria
Chico is suspended for Almeria after receiving a straight red in their home win over Villarreal last week. The Spanish centre-back has played 38 and missed 36 of Almeria’s games since the start of last season with the Andalusian club losing 56% of the matches he’s missed compared to 34% with him. Their average goals conceded has risen by 33% without him, from 1.29 per game to 1.72. Even more damningly, Almeria have failed to win any of the 18 away matches that Chico has missed and that includes a massive 15 defeats.
Inter v Chievo
Inter completed the first leg of an historic treble in midweek when they beat Roma in the Coppa Italia final and they can potentially clinch their fifth consecutive Scudetto with a win this weekend. Chievo appear to being given little chance of upsetting Inter and they travel without one of their key defenders as Santiago Morero received his marching orders last week for the second time in four matches.
The Argentine defender has played 42 and missed 32 of Chievo’s games since the start of last season and his absence has seen their loss rate increase from 31% to 59%, with their PPG falling by 43% without him. Moreover, they’ve lost 11 of 17 away matches he’s missed and they failed to score in 10 of those 11 defeats.