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NB: Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least 60 minutes. The sample is based on a team’s home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.
 

Hannover v Hamburg

Hamburg have fallen off the top spot in the Bundesliga in recent weeks, following three games without a win. It is no coincidence that this occurred at the same time as they lost their main striker Mladen Petrić having already been deprived of their other first choice forward Paolo Guerrero since earlier in the current campaign.

Since joining Hamburg at the start of last season, Petric has played 24 and missed 20 matches for the Rothosen. With him, Hamburg have won two-thirds of their matches whilst losing only five times and averaging 2.12 points per game. Without the Croatian international they have a disappointing record of W9-D4-L7 including just one win in their last nine matches, losing five times in the process. Not surprisingly given this record, the number of goals that Hamburg have scored has fallen from 1.79 per game with Petric to 1.45 without him.

Guerrero’s stats are also significant with Hamburg’s points per game falling by 12% from 1.93 in the 29 matches he has played since the start of last season to 1.69 in the 16 matches he has missed while their average goals scored has fallen from 1.79 per game to 1.38.

Punters should also look out for when both return from injury – January for Petric and March for Guerrero – as in their 12 matches together Hamburg have a record of nine wins and only one defeat with 2.25 goals scored per game compared to just 1.41 goals per game in the 32 matches where one or both have been missing.

Inter v Roma

Roma are still without their inspirational captain Francesco Totti as they make the trip to runaway leaders Inter, while Juan is injured and Rodrigo Taddei suspended. Their 2-1 win at home against struggling Bologna last week was Roma’s first success in nine matches without Totti, following four draws and four defeats. While Roma have won 16 of 28 (57%) matches that Totti has played since the start of last season, they have only recorded six victories in 21 games that he has missed, whilst losing nine times as their ppg has fallen by 40% from 1.89 with him to 1.14 without.

Juan has had a similar influence as Roma have won 12 of the 22 (55%) matches he has played in compared to just 10 of the 27 he has missed in which they have suffered 11 losses and their goals conceded has risen by a massive 52% from 1.27 per game with him to 1.93 without. Moreover, they have failed to win away without Juan, drawing four and losing eight of the 12 trips he has missed since 08/09 with five defeats by two or more goals.
 

Leverkusen v Frankfurt

Leverkusen moved a point clear at the top of the Bundesliga last weekend despite only managing a draw. This week they host Frankfurt who have already won away at second-placed Werder Bremen this season. Leverkusen are without their key playmaker Renato Augusto and in his absence they have drawn three of four matches this season. Further back they have won 18 of their 38 matches that the Brazilian has played since the start of last season whilst only managing two successes in the seven games he has missed.
 

Wolves v Arsenal

Arsenal make the trip to the West Midlands to play Wolves without their first choice left-back Gael Clichy who is out for several weeks with a back injury. The French international also missed several matches at the end of last season with a back problem and this latest injury is suspected to be a stress fracture.

Since the start of last season Clichy has played 37 of Arsenal’s 48 matches, with the Gunners winning 20 times (54%) and averaging 1.89 points per game. However, in the 11 matches he has missed Wenger’s boys have won seven times and lost only once, averaging 2.18 points per game.  While their defence has suffered in Clichy’s absence as their goals per game conceded has risen by 43% from 0.95 to 1.36, the Gunner’s have more than compensated by finding the opposition net more frequently – Arsenal’s goals scored have risen from 1.89 per game with Clichy to a massive 2.73 without him.

Moreover, they have won all six of their matches against bottom-half teams with all six wins garnered by the W/W double and all by at least a two goal margin. Wolves have been fairly solid in recent weeks but this will be their first meeting with a Big Four side this season.

Aston Villa v Bolton

Bolton will travel to Villa Park without the suspended Jlloyd Samuel and the Trotters have a surprisingly bad record without the former Villa player. Since Samuel moved to the Reebok at the start of the 07/08 season he has played 57 matches for Bolton; winning 32% and losing 47% of those matches. However, in the 29 games he has missed Bolton have won just 17% whilst losing 55% including a record of one draw and 10 defeats in the last 11 matches he has missed. Moreover, in those 11 games Bolton have found the net just twice and suffered eight L/L doubles.
 

Spurs v Sunderland

Sunderland head south without the in-form Kenwyne Jones who was red-carded last weekend. Since the start of last season, the Trinidadian has played 32 and missed 17 matches for the Black Cats with their average goals scored falling from 1.16 per game to 1.00. More significantly, the percentage of half-time draws without Jones has increased from 38% with him (HT W10-D12-L10) to 59% (HT W2-D10-L5) without.