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NB: Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least 60 minutes. The sample is based on a team’s home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.

Man City v Chelsea

Alex is unlikely to be fit to play against Man City and the most notable feature of Chelsea’s matches without the big Brazilian centre-back is that there has been a significant increase in the number of over-goals matches. The former Santos defender has played 21 and missed 31 of Chelsea’s games since the start of last season with just 29% of the games he has played in featuring three or more goals compared with 65% of those that he has missed. This is largely as a result of Chelsea having conceded just 0.33 goals per game when Alex plays compared to 0.81 otherwise.

Wolves v Bolton

Michael Kightly was just returning to full fitness following a broken metatarsal suffered in the latter part of last season when he went off last weekend against Birmingham with a fresh ankle injury that looks set to keep him out for another eight weeks.

Kightly was one of the most influential players in Wolves’ promotion push last season as he led the Championship with most assists and his significance is clearly seen when looking at Wolves’ stats with and without him. Since the start of last season, Kightly has played 37 and missed 23 of Wolves’ matches, with Mick McCarthy’s men averaging 2.05 points per game with him compared to just 1.04 PPG in his absence. Wolves have scored 1.84 goals per game when he has been available compared to just 1.05 without him; while the number of goals they have conceded have also been greatly affected as they have gone from just 1.05 goals per game conceded with Kightly to 1.74 without him.

Portsmouth v Burnley

This is a must win match for Portsmouth and if they can take advantage of the Clarets shambolic away form they can drag Burnley right into the relegation picture. However, Pompey will be without Younes Kaboul as the former Spurs defender is suspended. Since the start of last season Kaboul has played 29 and missed 23 games for Portsmouth and without him the South Coast side has conceded 14% more goals per game – up from 1.45 per game to 1.65. They have also scored slightly more goals in his absence and the net affect has been for a significant increase in the number of matches with three or more goals which has risen from 41% with Kaboul to 57% without.

Blackburn v Liverpool

Blackburn produced a fantastic performance to knock Chelsea out of the Carling Cup in midweek and with Sam Allardyce back in charge for this match will be looking to take advantage of Liverpool’s poor form. However, David Dunn is currently rated as doubtful for the match and should he not make it Liverpool’s chances will increase greatly. Since the start of last season Dunn has played 14 and missed 38 matches with Blackburn averaging 1.64 points per game with the playmaker compared to just 0.92 PPG without – a 44% reduction. This has largely been due to their average goals scored falling from 1.57 with Dunn to just 0.89 without and as a result the numbers of over-goals matches have fallen from 71% to 53% in his absence.

Malaga v Osasuna

Osasuna have made a solid start to the current season as they hold a mid-table position and have a decent away record. A large part of their success has been down to the growing influence of their Spanish left-back Nacho Monreal who recently earned his first caps for the national side.

Since the start of last season Monreal has played 33 of Osasuna’s 50 matches and helped Los Rojillos to 12 wins and only nine defeats as they have averaged 1.45 points per game. However, when he has been out of the side they have struggled badly and have suffered 11 defeats in 17 matches whilst winning only twice and earning just 0.59 points per game – a 59% reduction.

This change in fortunes when Monreal has not been present is not surprising when looking at the stats for how many goals they have conceded and scored without him as Osasuna’s goals conceded have risen by 40% from 1.09 to 1.53 per game while their goals scored have fallen by 56% from 1.33 per game to 0.59.

Auxerre v Nancy

Michaël Chrétien is injured for Nancy as they travel to in form Auxerre and without their home-grown right-back Nancy may be set to struggle. Chretien has played 25 of Nancy’s 52 matches since the start of last season and while they have lost eight of the matches he has played they have been beaten 15 times without him as their PPG has fallen by 36% from 1.45 points per game to just 0.89. This is in large part due to their terrible defensive record without Chretien as they have conceded 15 more goals without in only two more matches (42 goals without compared to just 27 with).

Hamburg v Hoffenheim

Hamburg have a formidable home record since the start of last season and while they have struggled recently as the absence of their main two strikers has hindered them to the point where they are without a win in six games they host a Hoffenheim team shorn of one of their key defenders with Austrian international Andreas Ibertsberger not fit enough to return from injury this week. Ibertsberger has missed Hoffenheim’s last three matches during which they have lost twice at home and beaten a struggling Koln team away.

Since the start of last season the Austrian defender has played 30 and missed 18 of Hoffenheim’s matches with Hoffe losing only six of the matches he has played compared to eight of those that he has missed – a 120% increase in their loss rate. As a result their PPG has fallen from 1.80 with Ibertsberger to 1.33 without and their average goals conceded have risen from 1.13 per game to 1.56.