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NB: Player appearances are based on a player starting and completing at least 60 minutes. The sample is based on a team’s home and away league matches since the start of last season unless otherwise stated.
Bolton v Aston Villa
John Carew has struck nine times in his last eight games, but misses this game with a back injury. Yet, despite Carew’s recent scoring exploits his Villa teammates have rarely benefitted from his presence as their PPG (points per game) has been a lowly 1.30 in the 33 matches he’s played since the start of last season compared to 1.94 in the 36 he’s missed.
On the road Villa’s stats are even more damning against the former Valencia striker’s impact as they’ve won three and lost nine of the 17 he’s played, compared with winning 13 and losing just two of the 17 he’s missed, meaning their PPG has risen by 193% without him!
Interestingly, Villa have scored more than twice in just one of their last 14 road games without Carew, as 11 of those 14 have had under 2.5 goals and they’ve recorded five 1-0 and three 2-0 wins.
Man Utd v Chelsea
England fans will be heartened by the news that Wayne Rooney’s injury against Bayern in midweek was not too serious and that the talismanic striker may actually benefit from a few weeks rest ahead of this summer’s festivity. Although, ahead of a potentially decisive clash at the top of the league it couldn’t be timed worse for United fans. There is good news for the Reds however, as United have won 15 of the 17 matches that Rooney has missed since 2008/09 and they showed plenty of skill in last week’s win at Bolton to prove they are far from a one-man team.
Portsmouth v Blackburn
Portsmouth’s nightmare season got even worse last week when they were beaten 2-0 by Spurs and lost both Danny Webber and Hermann Hreidarsson to long-term injuries. As a result of injuries earlier in the season Hreidarsson has played only 15 of Pompey’s 32 games this season, but the difference has been significant when he’s been available as the South Coast side’s PPG has risen from 0.47 without him to 0.93 with.
Grenoble v Lorient
Bostjan Cesar was sent off for two yellow cards for Grenoble in their defeat at Lyon last week, and the loss of the Slovenian is just the latest problem in what has been a horrible season for Grenoble. The former West Brom defender has been a first-team regular since signing for Grenoble in the middle of last season and has played 35 matches while missing just 13. While Grenoble have been bad with him (0.94 PPG), they’ve been atrocious without, as they’ve picked up just one point in those 13 games and seen their average goals-conceded climb by 40% up to 1.77 per game.
Almeria v Mallorca
Juanma Ortiz received his marching orders in Almeria’s defeat last weekend but his suspension could actually be a blessing for the side from Andalusia, as in his 46 appearances since the start of last season they’ve averaged just one point per game compared to 1.71 PPG in the 21 matches he’s missed. This big disparity in results has been down to their defence conceding 41% fewer goals per game when he hasn’t been playing and this in turn has led to the number of matches with over 2.5 goals falling to 38%, including just three of the 14 home matches he’s missed.
Hamburg v Hannover
Hannover picked up a couple of wins last month to give them hope of survival but after a heavy home defeat against Koln last weekend, during which midfielder Hanno Balitsch was sent off, that hope appears to have rescinded. Balitsch was capped for Germany back in 2003 and has been a first-choice member of the Hannover team, playing 46 and missing just 16 of their games since the start of last season. Without that leadership Hannover have suffered the L/L double result in half the 16 matches Balitsch has missed.