Bayern currently lie 12th with just eight points from their opening seven matches, and have a goal difference of -3. In contrast, Dortmund sit second on 18 points with a goal difference of +13, just three points behind unheralded Mainz who still maintain a 100% record, and five points clear of third-placed Hannover.

Bayern are currently 3.05 to claim a 23rd German title but in the last 13 seasons every champion has had at least 10 points by this stage. Bayern may take some comfort from the stat that four winners had just 10-11 points and on the evidence of the second half of last season they are comfortably the best team in the league.

However, while they’ve won eight of the last 13 titles the largest gap they’ve overturned at this stage was the six points they trailed Hamburg by last season and furthermore, no team has come from further back than that to win. Bayern have been 3-7 points off the lead at this stage in seven of the last 13 seasons and finished as champions just three times.

Added to Bayern’s problems – and one of the causes of their current situation – is the absence of their best player Arjen Robben, till after the winter break. Since the Dutchman’s arrival, Bayern have earned 2.41 points per game in his 17 appearances (starting and completing at least 60 minutes) compared to 1.67 PPG without him as their average goals scored have fallen from 2.65 per game with Robben to just 1.38 per game without.

As such Bayern look poor value favourites and with Dortmund and Mainz already owning a big lead on the rest having both beaten Bayern they look primed to take advantage. Of the two Dortmund have the stronger squad and are vastly more experienced. Given the last team to start with seven consecutive wins – Kaiserslautern in 2001/02 – finished seventh it would be no surprise if Mainz drifted back throughout the season and Dortmund look the value selection.

There have been eight seasons since 1997/98 where at least one team has had 17 points by this stage and in half of the years the title was won by one of those teams. Furthermore, the current gap of five points between second and third is greater than in any of the previous 13 seasons with the 97/98 and 98/99 seasons most similar at this stage and both teams with at least 17 points in those years emerged victorious.

Recommendation: Borussia Dortmund to win Bundesliga at 3.25, Sky Bet