Football / Reaction / A Hot Or Cold Streak

A hot or cold streak?

A new addition to Form Lab Pro is the ability to see how likely a team may be to continue a winning or losing run. Here are some examples for the next round of matches.

Liverpool's Rafael Benitez


The opportunity to see how likely teams are to continue a particular sequence of results, maintain an unbeaten run or break a winless streak is a valuable resource when trying to find value.  Form Lab Pro allows you to do just that and a couple of weeks ago highlighted how difficult it would be for Sunderland to win their fifth successive home game (they drew against West Ham) and how Liverpool might struggle at Fulham (they lost) based on the record of Big Four teams that have lost their previous two away matches.

Here are some examples based on next weekend's matches.

 

Premier League

Liverpool’s recent run of form suggests they may be vulnerable against Man City at Anfield. But City haven’t won any of their last four away and such teams when visiting a Big Four team have yet to win in 27 attempts (W0-D9-L18).

Championship

Coventry haven’t won any of their last four at home nor Crystal Palace any of their last four away. In such situations, the home team have won seven of the 10 played since 2004/05 and 5/7 have been W/W.

League 2

Bottom-six sides, like Grimsby, who have lost their last three away and are visiting a fellow bottom-six team have won only 3/18 (17%) compared to an overall 25% win rate in such a match-up.

Bundesliga

Wolfsburg are 1.4 to beat struggling visitors Nurnberg who have lost their previous four away matches, but teams on a similar poor run have avoided defeat in 4/9 matches when visiting a top-six side, and earlier this season, Borussia Monchengladbach in a similar situation won at second placed, Hamburg.

Greece

Top-six teams like Aris who haven’t won in five away matches have a W0-D5-L8 record against all teams and when playing a fellow top-six side have lost all four such matches since 2004/05.

Ligue 1

Le Mans have lost their last six away matches and whilst five of the previous 12 such teams in Ligue 1 all lost, 10 of the 12 were level at half-time. The tight nature of these matches is further exemplified by the fact that none of 12 games had three goals or more and nine had fewer than two goals.

Netherlands

Breda are bidding for a fourth successive home win and as well as a 65% win record for such teams against bottom-six visitors, 53% of the 34 matches have had +3.5 goals and 71% +2.5.

Portugal

Away teams on a five match loss streak like Leixoes have made it six in 15/19 with 10 of the 15 defeats by the L/L double result.

Spain La Liga

Spanish teams, like Malaga, on a home run of four straight defeats rarely make it five and in fact there have been only nine such matches since 2004/05. Only one of those nine lost, seven won and a remarkable 8/9 were leading at half-time.

Italy Serie B

Lecce have won their last four at home but teams with a similar streak have won only 3/17 when the visitor has been a top-six side with draws in 8/17.

 

In the course of the year, Form Lab PRO covers over 25 leagues, identifying value propositions prior to kick-off and then with In-Play functionality  trading positions during the game. . Click Here to subscribe to Form Lab PRO and have a free 14 day trial.

 

 
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