Football / Preview / Topline 30 10 2010

Topline (30/10/2010)

This weekend's Topline contains a whopping 17 recommendations including a selection in the Deportivo v Espanyol fixture on Sunday afternoon.

Deportivo goalkeeper Daniel Aranzubia



Czech: Viktoria Plzen v Teplice (Fri, 17:15)

Over the past four seasons, Viktoria Plzen have shown gradual improvement as they’ve consolidated their top-six status and now they lead the league by nine points after just 13 games. They are comfortably the league’s leading scorers having scored 50% more goals than the next highest scoring team, so no surprise that all their home games have exceeded +2.5 goals and longer term that’s been the case in 15/21 home matches with 10 having +3.5 goals. Visitors Teplice have had 7/11 +2.5 when conceding away and only one fewer has had +3.5.

Recommendation: +3.0 goals 2.50, Bet365


Bundesliga: Bayern v SC Freiburg (Fri, 19:30)

Bayern started last season sluggishly and this season it’s almost a snail’s pace as they’ve won only two of five at home. Even when their season picked up last year their home performances were notable for their comparatively slow starts, of their nine wins from the halfway point in only four were they ahead at the break. If we treat Bayern purely on their current position then away to middle-third teams, Freiburg have tied 8/10 at the break since their promotion, just as Bayern have done in 7/10 at home to top half non-Big 3 teams. The half-time draw is priced at an attractive 2.75 and looks marginally better value than Draw/Bayern at 4.5, even though the Bavarians have won seven of those 10 against top half non-Big 3 sides.

Recommendation: HT Draw 2.80, Sportingbet


Ireland: Fingal v UC Dublin (Fri, 19:45)

Generally 42% of Irish games feature +2.5 goals but this jumps to 60% on the final day of the season. 9/17 of Fingal’s home matches this term have seen at least three goals while six have contained four or more. While not fantastic over goals figures, they are strengthened considerably by UC Dublin’s stats of 13/17 +2.5 and 7/17 +3.5 goals – which has included all of their last five - on the road this season.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.65, Unibet / Bwin


Japan: Kawasaki F v Jubilo Iwata (Sat, 07:00)

Kawasaki have lost only twice at home this season (both to top-half teams) but otherwise have won 9/11 and they have a strong record of scoring first against middle-third sides (13/14) whereas visitors Jubilo Iwata have conceded first in 5/7 away to top-six sides. Kawasaki have won 8/10 v middle-third teams (six by two goals or more.) and 15 of their last 18 at home when scoring first; Iwata have lost 9/11 when trailing.

Recommendation: Kawasaki Win 1.83, BlueSquare


Romania: FC Otelul v CFR Cluj (Sat, 13:00)

FC Otelul have won all of their six home games this season while CFR Cluj have picked up just two points from their six away fixtures. The hosts are on a five-game winning streak in all league games and they have won 14/23 since the start of last season. They have also been successful in 3/6 games hosting top-six sides while CFR have lost 3/7 trips to similar teams.

Recommendation: FC Otelul Win 2.50, Stan James


Poland: Ruch Chorzow v Arka Gdynia (Sat, 13:45)

Both of these sides lost their star-striker’s in the summer and as a result both have struggled to find the net so far this term – Ruch Chorzow have scored nine goals in 10 games while Arka have managed a paltry five. All of the hosts home matches this season have featured fewer than three goals as have 5/5 of Arka’s away fixtures. The visitors are yet to score on the road this season and four of the games have seen at most a single goal. The home win is also tempting here as Chorzow have won 12/19 since the start of last season while Arka have suffered defeat in 14/20 on the road.

Recommendation: Ruch Chorzow Clean Sheet 2.40, Bet770


Bundesliga: Wolfsburg v VfB Stuttgart (Sat, 14:30)

Wolfsburg are one of the strongest over goals teams that we cover across all of our leagues. Since the start of last season 19/21 of their home matches have settled the +2.5 goals market while 16 have seen at least four goals. Stuttgart have scored in 6/6 away fixtures while Wolfsburg have had +3.5 goals in 15/18 home games when they have conceded. Five of the last six meetings between these sides have produced at least four scores.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.38, Boyles


League One: Peterborough v Brighton (Sat, 15:00)

Peterborough remain a completely different side when they play at home. Posh have picked up 15 of their 22 points from six home fixtures and all of their home games have been enthralling affairs. All six games have seen at least three goals while four have contained four or more. The hosts have scored an incredible 21 home goals already this season while their opponents, table-toppers Brighton, have scored in each of their last three away matches. Moreover, Gus Poyet’s side have seen at least three goals in 10/19 away games when they have conceded.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.00, Various


Ligue 1: Stade Brest v Saint-Etienne (Sat, 18:00)

Both of these sides have over-performed so far this season. Promoted Brest moved up to fourth with their incredible 2-0 win at Bordeaux last week while St Etienne sit a place above their opponents. All of Brest’s four home games so far have contained fewer than three scores while three have seen at most one while Saint Etienne have failed to score in 9/24 away fixtures since the start of last season. 14 of those games saw no more than two scores while 10 settled the -1.5 goals market.

Recommendation: -1.5 goals 2.75, VC


Ligue 1: SM Caen v AS Nancy (Sat, 18:00)

Promoted Caen secured an impressive 3-2 home win over Lyon in their opening home game of the season but they have failed to net at home since then. Opponents Nancy have been beaten in just 1/6 away fixtures this term and that was a narrow 1-0 defeat at Marseille. Promoted teams have won only 42% of home matches against bottom-half teams during the first half of the season but this drops to 31% when the visitors score. Nancy have netted in 5/6 trips to promoted teams since 2008/09.

Recommendation: Lay Caen Win 2.22, Betfair


Brazil: EC Vitoria v Vasco da Gama (Sat, 19:00)

12/15 of Vasco da Gama’s away games this season have settled the -2.5 goals market while seven have featured no more than a single goal. EC Vitoria were involved in many high-scoring home games at the start of the season but these have progressively declined as the season has gone on. Five of their last eight home fixtures have seen fewer than three goals.

Recommendation: -2.5 goals 1.80, Pinnacle


Brazil: Internacional v Santos (Sat, 19:00)

Fourth hosts fifth with both teams six points adrift of the top three. Internacional would be a contender if their away form had matched that of last season when they finished second. At home they’ve won six of their last seven (conceded only once) and more crucially for this match, have won seven of their last eight hosting top-six teams (conceded twice). Santos have lost six of their last seven away to top-six sides and conceded in 12/15 since 2008 away to top-half teams.

Recommendation: Internacional Win 2.00, Stan James


Brazil: Avai v Guarani (Sat, 19:00)

Promoted Guarani have struggled away this season losing 10/15 and five of their last seven by two goals or more. Avai have slumped to 19th having finished sixth last season but even this season have a strong home win record when scoring with wins in 6/8 and 16/24 since 2008 with just two defeats. Guarani have kept a solitary away clean sheet (their only win) and conceded two or more in 10/15.

Recommendation: Avai Win 1.85, Bwin / Unibet


Austria: RB Salzburg v Rapid Vienna (Sun, 15:00)

Salzburg have been the Austrian champions in three of the past four seasons and the odd season out was when Rapid Vienna lifted the title three seasons ago. As you might expect, Salzburg have been a strong opponent at home to top-six sides winning 19/24, including all three this season. Rapid have won only 4/20 away to same group and lost seven. They’ve conceded in 18/20 and when Salzburg have scored at home they’ve won 16/19 and 11 of those by more than a goal.

Recommendation: RB Salzburg Win 2.00, Various


La Liga: Deportivo v Espanyol (Sun, 16:00)

Deportivo have had a dreadful start to the season, they are second-bottom of La Liga with just four points after eight games and, worryingly, they have scored just three goals. 14/23 of the hosts home matches since the start of last season have had -2.5 goals while 10 have seen -1.5 goals. In a similar fashion, 15/23 of Espanyol’s away fixtures since 2009/10 have seen no more than a brace of scores while 11 have contained at most one.

Recommendation: -2.0 goals 2.05, Pinnacle


Denmark: Esbjerg v Brondby (Sun, 17:00)

Esbjerg have started slower than expected in the Danish league this season, the hosts have conceded in all of their six home fixtures which has been the driving force behind five of their games seeing more than two goals. Brondby have had three +3.5 goal away games so far this term and they have scored at least twice themselves on four occasions. 15/22 of Esbjerg’s home matches since the start of last season have settled the +2.5 goals market as have 13/22 of Brondby’s away games and the same has been true in nine of the last 16 clashes between these sides.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.86, Pinnacle


Norway: Tromso v Stromsgodset (Sun, 17:00)

With two games remaining, third placed Tromso are well set for European qualification whereas Stromgodset are destined for mid-table anonymity. The visitors have lost nine of their last 10 away to top-six teams and six of those by two goals or more. This season eight of their nine away defeats from 14 matches have been by more than a goal just as 4/9 Tromso home wins have been by more than a goal. But when hosting middle-third teams 6/8 Tromso wins have been by more than a goal.

Recommendation: Tromso Win -1 2.00, Bet365




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