Football / Preview / Topline 27 03 2010

Topline (27/03/2010)

After last week's excellent results, Topline returns with 12 selections spread across Saturday, Sunday and Monday this weekend.

Athletic Bilbao's Fernando Llorente


 

 

La Liga: Malaga v Tenerife (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 1-1 (HT 0-0)

Match outcome: Malaga have tied the opening 45 minutes of six of their last seven home fixtures and they have gone on to win three of these games. Promoted Tenerife are winless in on the road this term with 11 losses in 13 games, although they have seen six HT draws.

Recommendation: Split Stakes: Malaga Win 2.02, Betfair
                                                            Malaga D/W 5.80, Betfair

 

Premier League: Bolton v Man Utd (Sat, 17:30) - Result: 0-2

Win to nil: Bolton have lost 10 of their 11 home games against the Big Four since 2007/08 and have failed to score in five of the last six. Further, four of Bolton’s five home defeats this season have been without them scoring. Man Utd have won 12 of their last 13 trips to bottom-half teams with seven wins-to-nil and since 2006/07 have won 11 of 12 away to bottom-half sides in their final six away games of the season, including seven wins-to-nil.

Recommendation: Man Utd Win to nil 2.38, Boyle Sports

 

Eredivisie: Roda v Heerenveen (Sat, 18:45) - Result: 4-2

Over/Under: 61% (14/23) of Roda’s home matches since the start of last season have settled the +2.5 goals market when they have conceded while six of their last 15 games hosting middle-third teams have featured four or more scores. 55% (17/31) of Heerenveen’s away fixtures since 2008/09 have seen at least four goals as have six of their last 14 games at middle-third sides.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.75, Bwin/Stan James

 

Serie A: Sampdoria v Cagliari (Sun, 14:00) - Result: 1-1

HT/FT: Sampdoria have won all of their last four home matches with three W/Ws. Additionally, the hosts have led at half-time in six of their last 10 home fixtures against middle-third sides. Cagliari have suffered defeat in all of their last five on the road (three L/Ls) and also in four of their last five trips to top-six opposition.

Recommendation: Sampdoria W/W 2.62, Various

 

Segunda: Hercules v Gimnastic (Sun, 15:00) - Result: 0-1

Asian handicap: Hercules have won 80% (20/25) of their home fixtures stretching back to the midway stage of last season. Further, four of their last six such wins have been by two clear goals. Gimnastic have picked up just one point in their last three on the road and they have trailed at the break in all of their last four games at top-six teams (W0-D1-L3).

Recommendation: Hercules Win –1 2.19, Bet365

 

Bundesliga: Borussia M’gladbach v Hamburg (Sun, 16:30) - Result: 0-1

Over/Under: Half (3/6) of Borussia M’gladbach’s recent home fixtures have seen at least four goals as have four of their last eight games hosting top-six sides when they have conceded. Hamburg have netted in 12 of their last 14 on the road and nine (64%) of these games have featured more than three goals. Similarly, four of their last five games at middle-third sides have settled the +3.5 goals market.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.25, William Hill

 

Ligue 1: Lorient v Saint-Etienne (Sun, 18:00) - Result: 4-0

Match outcome: Lorient have won both of their last two home matches 1-0 and they have also been successful in four of five undefeated games hosting bottom-six opposition. Contrastingly, Saint-Etienne have picked up just one point in four on the road and they have also been beaten in 73% (19/26) of their games at top-half sides since 2007/08.

Recommendation: Lorient Win 2.16, Betfair

 

Super League: Kavala v Ergotelis (Sun, 17:00) - Result: 1-3

Over/Under: There have been +2.5 goals in five of the last six AO Kavala home matches against bottom-six teams as there have been +2.5 goals in six of the last 10 Ergotelis away matches against top-six teams. Also, AO Kavala have scored first in five of their last six home matches against bottom-six teams.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.30, Bwin

 

Super League: AEK Athens v Panionios (Sun, 17:00) - Result: 1-1

HT/FT: AEK Athens have had W/W double results in seven of their last 10 home matches against top half non-Big Three teams while Panionios have had L/L double results in seven of their last 10 away matches against Big Three teams. Further, Panionios have lost 16 of their last 17 away matches against Big Three teams.

Recommendation: AEK Athens W/W 2.20, Paddy Power

 

Ligue 1: Lille v Montpellier (Sun, 20:00) - Result: 4-1

Over/Under: Seven of Lille’s last nine home games have seen at least three scores while five have featured four or more. Over a longer period, seven of their last 12 home matches against top-six teams have settled the +2.5 goals market. Promoted Montpellier have netted in 11 of their 14 away fixtures this term and eight of the games have seen at least three goals.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.10, Various

 

Championship: Newcastle v Nottm Forest (Mon, 19:45) - Result: 2-0 (HT 0-0)

HT/FT: Newcastle have won all of their last six home matches with five W/Ws, scoring 25 goals in the process and conceding just three. The hosts have also recorded W/Ws in two of their three home games against top-six sides this term. Despite their impressive home form, Nottm Forest have been beaten in all of their last six on the road with four L/Ls.

Recommendation: Newcastle W/W 2.96, Betfair

 

La Liga: Athletic Bilbao v Racing (Mon, 20:00) - Result: 4-3 (HT 2-1)

HT/FT: Athletic Bilbao have scored in the opening half of all of their last six home matches, recording five wins and four W/W doubles. Furthermore, they have are undefeated in 14 games hosting bottom-half opposition — W12-D2-L0 with 11 W/Ws. Racing have been beaten in nine of their 14 away fixtures when they have conceded before the break on the road since 2008/09. Additionally, they have seen L/Ls in five of their last 11 games at top-six sides.

Recommendation: Athletic Bilbao W/W 3.40, Betfair




 

 
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