Football / Preview / Topline 20 11 2010

Topline (20/11/2010)

This week's Topline contains 15 recommendations including a pick in Monday evening's Premier League fixture between Sunderland and Everton.

Everton's Tim Cahill


Championship: Hull City v Ipswich (Sat, 15:00)

Hull are struggling with just 18 points from 17 games while Ipswich are six points better off in 12th. The hosts main problem has been goals. They have scored just five in their eight home matches so far (seven -2.5 goals and five -1.5 goals). Ipswich have scored more than once in only 1/6 away games and 8/13 of their recent trips to bottom-half sides have settled the -2.5 goals market.

Recommendation: -2.5 goals 1.79, Betfair


Championship: Norwich v Leeds (Sat, 15:00)

Norwich have scored in 7/8 home fixtures this term but they have conceded in six of the games (five +2.5 goals). Leeds have scored 10 goals in their last four on the road (all +2.5 goals) and they have failed to score in just one of their away games this season while they have kept only two clean sheets.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.80, Betfair


Serie A: Roma v Udinese (Sat, 17:00)

There have been +2.5 goals in 16/25 Roma home games since the start of last season and in 7/9 home games against top-half non-Big Four teams. There have been at least three goals in 8/9 Udinese away games when conceding and in 5/7 trips to Big Four sides. Also six of the last seven meetings between these sides have had +2.5 goals.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.95, Bet365 / Stan James


La Liga: Villarreal v Valencia (Sat, 17:00)

Villareal have won 12 of their last 13 home matches, all by W/W doubles, and have won all of their last nine home games against top-half non-Big Two teams. Furthermore, they’ve won five of the last seven meetings between these sides and this fixture in four of the past five seasons. Valencia have lost 9/14 away matches, including five L/Ls, and have suffered defeats in each of their last nine trips to top-six teams with seven L/Ls.

Recommendation: Villarreal W/W 3.70, Bwin


Czech: Mlada Boleslav v Slavia Prague (Sat, 17:20)

All of Mlada’s last five home matches have featured at least four goals while the last four have seen five or more. The hosts have scored in all of their eight home games this season and conceded in their last five. While the ‘overs’ stats aren’t quite as strong for Slavia, they have netted in 6/8 away games and they have also scored in 4/6 winless trips to top-six sides. Since 2009/10, 6/11 of Mlada’s home matches against bottom-six sides have had +3.5 goals.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.40, Various


Premier League: Liverpool v West Ham (Sat, 17:30)

There have been at least three goals in 15/25 Liverpool home since the start of last season including in 11/15 games against bottom-half sides. Meanwhile West Ham have had over-goals in 14/22 away games, including in 5/6 trips to middle-third teams and 4/6 road games at Big Four teams. Furthermore, Torres clearly enjoys these matches as he’s played in 17 of Liverpool’s last 30 home games against bottom-half teams and scored 21 goals with 13/17 matches featuring at least three goals.

Recommendation:  +2.5 goals 2.05, Bet365


Ligue 1: AS Nancy v Valenciennes (Sat, 18:00)

Nancy remain second-bottom of Ligue 1 having lost 5/6 home matches this season with their only win being a 1-0 victory over Lorient. Valenciennes are also struggling but they have lost just 2/7 on the road, albeit with four draws, and they have scored in five of their games. Further, Nancy have won just 3/18 when conceding since the start of last season.

Recommendation: Lay AS Nancy Win 2.28, Betfair


Ligue 1: PSG v Caen (Sat, 18:00)

PSG have won 10 of their 13 home games against bottom-six teams since 2008/09 with nine W/Ws, with each of the last 12 such matches containing at least three goals and five four or more. Furthermore, PSG have had +2.5 goals in 14/20 home games against all opposition. Caen started the season well but have conceded 11 goals in their last three games with all three matches featuring at least five goals.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.20, Boyles


Argentina: Estudiantes v Huaracan (Sat, 23:20)

Estudiantes have not conceded at home for nine games with eight wins to-nil and have 14 clean sheets in their last 17 home matches during which they’ve had 10 wins by two-clear goals. Furthermore, they’ve won nine of their last 11 home games against bottom-half teams; all to nil and with eight wins by two or more goals. Huracan have lost 5/6 away matches with all five defeats coming to nil and by at least two goals (three by three or more). Moreover, Huracan have lost 9/10 away matches against top-half teams with eight defeats to nil and six by two or more goals.

Recommendation: Estudiantes Win to nil 2.05, Bwin
                                   Estudiantes Win -1.5 2,15, Bwin


Super Lig: Manisaspor v Bursaspor (Sun, 11:30)

Bursaspor remain a decent team after lifting the Super Lig title last season. The visitors haven’t been able to replicate their domestic form in the Champions League, however this means they can concentrate on this game rather than their trip to Valencia on Wednesday as they have little to play for. Manisaspor have picked up just two points from their last six games hosting top-six opposition while Bursaspor have won half of their away fixtures since 2009/10. They are also unbeaten on the road so far this term having netted 11 times in their five games. The hosts have lost 9/14 when conceding.

Recommendation: Bursaspor Win -0.25 2.10, Bet365


Serie A: Chievo v Inter Milan (Sun, 14:00)

4/6 of Chievo’s home matches this term have had -1.5 goals as have 4/6 of Inter Milan’s away games (5/6 -2.5 goals). The visitors are really struggling for goals. They were unable to score in the Milan derby last weekend even though AC were reduced to 10-men on the hour mark. They haven’t scored more than one goal in any of their last eight league fixtures while 3/4 of Chievo’s home games against Big Four opposition last season saw -2.5 goals (two -1.5 goals).

Recommendation: -2.0 goals 2.17, 32Red


Eredivisie: Utrecht v NEC Nijmegen (Sun, 15:30)

5/6 of Utrecht’s home matches this season have had +2.5 goals while three have seen +3.5 goals. The hosts have scored in all of their six such games and only once have they scored just one goal. 5/7 of NEC Nijmegen’s away fixtures have had +3.5 goals and they have scored in six of the games while Utrecht have kept just two clean sheets.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 3.00, Various


La Liga: Sevilla v Mallorca (Sun, 16:00)

Sevilla have improved since Manzano took charge six games ago, with impressive home wins over Bilbao, Atletico Madrid and Valencia. They’ve now won six of their last nine home games with five wins by two clear goals, and have won 11 of their last 15 matches hosting middle-third sides. Mallorca have struggled in their last couple of games and have lost nine of their last 14 trips to top-half non-Big Two sides with eight defeats by at least two goals.

Recommendation: Sevilla Win -1.5 2.9, Unibet


Super Lig: Fenerbahce v Bucaspor (Mon, 18:00)

Fenerbahce have lead at half-time in 11 of their last 13 home matches as they’ve recorded nine W/Ws, with the only teams to stop them being either other Big Three sides or top-six finishers. Bucaspor are winless away since their promotion with their three draws coming against teams now in the bottom six and their other three trips resulting in L/Ls. Furthermore, they’ve scored just one goal in their last eight matches.

Recommendation: Fenerbahce W/W 1.95, Bwin


Premier League: Sunderland v Everton (Mon, 20:00)

Sunderland are in good form and have lost just one of their last 16 home games – against Man Utd – although they have drawn half those matches. Moreover, they’ve drawn half their last six home games against middle-third teams. Everton have lost just one of their last eight matches (against Arsenal) but have drawn 10 of their last 18 away including six of their eight trips to top-half non-Big Four teams since the start of last season.

Recommendation: Drawn match 3.30, Various


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