Football / Preview / Topline 17 12 2010

Topline (17/12/2010)

This week's Topline contains a huge 21 festive selections and includes a recommendations in Villarreal v Mallorca on Saturday evening.

Villarreal players celebrating

 

Belgium: Kortrijk v Standard Liege (Fri, 19:30)

Kortrijk seem to go from strength-to-strength at home. The hosts have won 11/12 home matches with eight W/W doubles and seven victories by two clear goals. They have also gained full-points from 5/6 home fixtures against top-six sides but they find themselves outsiders in this game. Standard Liege may have finished in the top-two for the last two seasons, but they are no longer so dominant. They have already lost 5/9 away matches this season including both of their last two, one of which was a 2-0 defeat at lowly Zulte-Waregem. Stretching back to the start of last season, they have won just 1/10 trips to top-half sides, losing three of their last four.

Recommendation: Kortrijk Win 3.00, William Hill

 

League One: Brighton v Notts Co (Fri, 19:45)

Brighton are unbeaten in 11 home games with eight wins and three victories by two-clear goals. Moreover, they’ve won 7/9 home games against bottom-half teams with six W/Ws, five win by two or more goals and all seven wins coming to nil. Notts Co have lost 6/8 away matches since their promotion and they’ve earned just one point from six matches against teams currently in the top seven with three defeats by two or more goals.

Recommendation: Brighton Win 1.91, Victor Chandler

 

Super Liga: Sporting Braga v Academica (Fri, 20:15)

Sporting Braga may not be flying as high as they were last season when they finished runners-up but despite their Champions League distractions, they are still a strong force at home winning and scoring two or more in 5/6.  Acadenica have conceded two in 4/6 away and scored in all those trips. Braga won 14/15 at home last season and kept clean sheets in 10 but they’ve been more lax this season and Academica should get on the score sheet which they’ve done in 16/21 away.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.30, Bet365

 

Serie B: Livorno v Padova (Sat, 14:00)

Relegated Livorno are in fifth position in the league despite winning just 4/9 home matches this season. Six of their games have had +2.5 goals, however, and they have netted in all of their last six, scoring at least twice on four occasions. Padova are winless on the road this term but they have scored in five of their last six matches (four +2.5 goals). Further, they have had +2.5 goals in 5/8 trips to top-six teams and also in 15/25 away games generally when they have conceded since 2009/10.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.20, Various

 

Bundesliga: Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim (Sat, 14:30)

Wolfsburg under Steve McClaren may be having a disappointing season but their home games are still high scoring. It is now 30 games since they last conceded at home and the match failed to have three or more goals. 22 of the 29 games had four or more and their failure to score in their last home match was the first in 40 matches.

Wolfsburg may well concede this weekend because against a variety of opposition type, Hoffenheim have scored in all their away games this season and whilst their away matches may not be littered with +3.5 goals, it has been the case in 7/16 away to bottom-half teams.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.75, Various

 

Super League: Kavala v Atromitos (Sat, 15:15)

Having recently entertained three of the league’s strongest sides, AO Kavala will welcome a team from the other end of the table especially as they’ve won 6/11 against bottom-half teams. Eight of those 11 matches have had +2.5 goals. Kavala have conceded in all their home games thus far and since the start of last season, 11/17 home games have been +2.5 when conceding, as have 11/16 when Atromitos have scored on the road.

Recommendation +2.5 goals 2.62, Various

 

La Liga: Villarreal v Mallorca (Sat, 17:00)

Villarreal have been in superb form and they’ve won 19/23 home games with 16 W/Ws and 11 victories by two-clear goals. Moreover, they’ve won 8/9 home games against middle-third teams with seven W/Ws. Mallorca have lost 5/8 away games with three defeats by at least two goals and they’ve lost by more than one goal in 11/20 trips to top-half teams.

Recommendation: Villarreal Win -1 2.00, Bet 365

 

Super Lig: Fenerbache v Sivasspor (Sat, 17:00)

A couple of seasons ago, Sivasspor were a top-three team but last season they finished  where they currently reside -15th. Fenerbache have always been a strong home team, winning 18/24 since the start of last season and nine of their last 13 when hosting bottom-six sides. When they do win at home, they tend to do so by a decent margin with 8/9 v bottom-six by two or more and the same margin in 5/6 against all opponents this season.

Sivasspor have lost 13/24 away since their decline (11 by more than a goal) and by more than a goal at all five of the six that were at top-six grounds.

Recommendation: Fenerbache Win -1.5 2.10, Various

 

Netherlands: Heerenveen v De Graafschap (Sat, 17:45)

Heerenveen come into this game in a rich vein of form. They have won all of their last four home matches which included thrashing reigning champions Twente 6-2 in their last outing. They also have a strong record against middle-third sides with 9/13 home victories since 2008/09 with seven wins by two clear goals. Promoted De Graafschap have won just one away match this season and that was against struggling Willem II and they have trailed at HT in 5/8 away games.

Recommendation: Heerenveen Win -1.5 2.02, Bet365

 

Netherlands: Den Haag v Willem II (Sat, 19:45)

Den Haag will view this as their best chance of three home points this season. The hosts have won 4/5 home matches and 4/8 of their home games this term have had +3.5 goals. Furthermore, 5/7 of their recent games hosting bottom-six sides have had at least four goals as did 3/5 of their home matches against bottom-six finishers last season. Willem II are rooted to the bottom of the Eredivisie having gained just four points from 18 games so far this season. They have conceded at least two goals in 8/9 winless away fixtures and half (5/10) of their trips to middle-third teams have had +3.5 goals.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.25, Various

 

Ligue 1: Paris St-G v Monaco (Sat, 20:00)

Apart from a couple of games, goals have been plentiful in Paris St Germaine home matches this season – 7/9 +2.5 and likewise for Monaco on the road - 5/8 +2.5. Indeed these two figure prominently in the league table for +2.5 goals – PSG 15/20 at home and Monaco 11/20 away. And since the start of last season, all eight PSG home matches against bottom-six sides have had more than three goals as have 6/10 of Monaco’s away to the best teams.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.20, Boylesports

 

Segunda: Cartagena v Las Palmas (Sun, 11:00)

Cartagena have netted in all of their last seven home league fixtures and five of the games have had +2.5 goals. The hosts have also kept just one home clean sheet this term. They have had +2.5 goals in 6/12 home games against middle-third sides. Las Palmas have had 5/7 +2.5 goals away games recently while 5/8 of their matches at top-six sides have seen at least four scores.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.10, Bet365

 

Netherlands: PSV Eindhoven v Roda (Sun, 13:30)

PSV have won 7/9 home fixtures this season and in each of the games they have netted at least three times and won by at least two goals despite them conceding in six of the fixtures. 6/9 matches have had +3.5 goals as have half (13/26) of their home fixtures since the start of last season. Further, 10/15 of their home fixtures have had +3.5 goals when they have conceded over the same period. Roda recorded an impressive 4-0 win at VVV-Venlo on Tuesday night which marked their eighth +2.5 goals game in nine on the road this season. Four of the matches have seen at least four goals as they have netted in eight of the games while keeping just once clean sheet. Since 2005/06, 7/11 of their away games against the Big Two have had +3.5 goals.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.20, Betfair

 

Serie A: Chievo v Juventus (Sun, 14:00)

Chievo have lost their last two games and five of their last 12 at home. Moreover, they’ve lost 6/10 home games against the Big Four since 2008/09 and half their last 12 matches hosting top-six sides. Juventus are unbeaten in seven away games and have won 8/12 trips to teams placed 9th-15th with six W/Ws and five wins by at least two goals.

Recommendation: Juventus Win 2.10, William Hill

 

Serie A: Bari v Palermo (Sun, 14:00)

There have been at least three goals in eight of Bari’s last 13 home games against top-half teams and in six of their nine trips to top-half finishers last season. Palermo have had over-goals in 13/16 away games including all of their last 10 trips to bottom-six teams. Last year this fixture featured six goals.

Bari have lost 9/11 games including just one point from their last five home matches and half their last 10 hosting top-half teams. Palermo have won 5/9 away games and four of five overall as well as five of their last seven trips to bottom-six teams.

Recommendation: Palermo Win 2.25, Victor Chandler
                                   +2.5 goals 2.05, Bet 365

 

Super Lig: Konyaspor v Galatasaray (Sun, 14:00)

Until this season, Galatasaray had rarely been out of the top four at any stage of a season but they’ve spent nearly this entire one in the bottom half. Unusually for them, they’ve failed to score in 3/8 away which is only one fewer than in the whole of last season but those three were at the teams that currently occupy the top four positions. Promoted Konyaspor, should be more accommodating as they’ve conceded in all their home games with 6/8 featuring +2.5 goals. In 13 of the last 17 away matches that Galatasaray have scored in, there have been more than three goals.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.00, Various

 

Super League: Iraklis v AEK Athens (Sun, 15:15)

It’s rare for either team to score more than a goal, home and away respectively, and thus under goals are a common occurrence – there have been less than three in 12/14 Iraklis home games (5/7 v Big 3) and in 9/11 Athens away to bottom-half sides. What deters us from a straight under goals recommendation is that neither team has had a goalless home or away game respectively since the start of last season. What has featured prominently is higher scoring second halves, especially Athens away matches - all seven this season and 11/16 at middle-third grounds.

Recommendation: Highest scoring half: Second 2.10, Various

 

Super League: Larissa v Olympiakos (Sun, 17:30)

Larissa are in a wretched run of form currently, having lost their last four games and now have a daunting fixture against the team from the other end of the table, Olympiakos. The visitors have won 11/15 away to bottom-six sides and 10 of those without conceding. In fact of their 14 away wins since the start of last season, 11 have been to nil. Larissa have scored in only two of their last seven home defeats.

Recommendation: Olympiakos Win to nil 2.30, Bet365 

 

La Liga: Malaga v Atl. Madrid (Sun, 18:00)

Malaga have won their last two home games and did the double over Atl. Madrid last season. Furthermore, they’ve lost only 3/9 home games against top-half non-Big Two teams (W3-D3-L3). Atl. Madrid have lost 11/17 away games (W2-D4-L11) and have won just 1/6 trips to bottom-six teams whilst losing tree times.

Recommendation: Malaga Win DNB 2.40, Bodog

 

Ligue 1: Lille v AS Nancy (Sun, 19:00)

Lille continue to score and concede freely at home just as Nancy do when travelling. In only one of Nancy’s eight away games this season have both teams failed to score. If you look at Lille’s home games since the start of last season, there is high rate of +2.5 and +3.5 goals both when they score or concede, and against middle-third teams, 6/9 have had four or more goals. It’s 10/15 +2.5 for Nancy away to top-six sides but fewer +3.5 (5).

Our only caveat to this game would be if Gervinho fails to return from injury because with him Lille have scored twice as many at home as when he’s failed to start. 

Recommendation: +3.0 goals 2.42, Bet365

 

Serie A: Sampdoria v Genoa (Sun, 19:45)

Don’t expect too many goals in the Genoa derby, with four of their six meetings in the past three years having fewer than two goals and four being level at half-time. Sampdoria have had -2.5 goals in 15/20 home games with half-time 0-0s in 6/9 home matches. Furthermore, they’ve had fewer than three goals in 8/10 home games against middle-third teams with seven half-time draws. Genoa have been level at the break in 10/17 away games and had -2.5 goals in 6/8 trips to top-half non-Big Four teams since the start of last season.

Recommendation: Half-time score 0-0 2.70, Unibet
 

 
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