Football / Preview / Topline 15 05 2010

Topline (15/05/2010)

This week's Topline contains seven recommendations including four calls in Serie A and La Liga as both leagues draw to a close.

Luca Toni


La Liga: Ath Bilbao v Deportivo (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 2-0 (HT 1-0)

HT/FT: Ath Bilbao have recorded W/Ws in 5/9 games hosting middle-third sides (seven +2.5 goals) whereas Deportivo have lost-to-nil in 5/6 away matches against top-half non-Big Two teams (three L/Ls). Depor have seen L/Ls in 7/8 winless away fixtures.

Recommendation: Ath Bilbao W/W 2.95, Bwin


Super Lig: Sivasspor v Ankaragucu (Sat, 17:00) - Result: 3-3

Match outcome: Sivasspor have been successful in 8/13 home matches against middle-third teams since 2008/09 whereas Ankaragucu have won just 1/11 away games with six defeats and five L/Ls. The visitors have also been beaten in 4/7 trips to bottom-six sides.

Recommendation: Sivasspor Win 2.25, Expekt


Serie A: Parma v Livorno (Sun, 14:00) - Result: 4-1

Correct score: Parma have won-to-nil in 3/6 home matches with three D/Ws while Livorno have been beaten to nil in 4/6 winless trips to middle-third opposition (four L/Ls). The hosts have been successful in 4/7 home games against bottom-six sides this term (five -2.5 goals).

Recommendation: Split Stakes: Parma to win 1-0 10.0, Skybet
                                                           Parma to win 2-0 9.0, William Hill

Serie A: Chievo v Roma (Sun, 14:00) - Result: 0-2

Over/Under: 16/16 of Chievo's home matches have seen fewer than three goals while 10 have featured no more than two. Further, 6/7 of their games hosting Big Four sides have settled the -3.5 goals market as have 12/18 of Roma's away fixtures against bottom-half sides.

Recommendation: -3.5 goals 2.00, William Hill


Serie B: Crotone v Mantova (Sun, 14:00) - Result: 2-2

HT/FT: Crotone have recorded W/Ws in 5/5 home fixtures with four wins-to-nil while Mantova have suffered defeat in 7/9 on the road, six of which were L/L doubles. The visitors are also winless in 11 trips to top-six sides.

Recommendation: Crotone W/W 2.88, Ladbrokes


La Liga: Valencia v Tenerife (Sun, 18:00) - Result: 1-0

Match outcome: Valencia have won by two or more goals in 6/10 undefeated home fixtures with six W/Ws whilst Tenerife have been beaten in 15/18 away games this term with nine losses by two clear goals (5/5 at top-six sides).

Recommendation: Valencia Win 2.30, Bet365


Veikkausliiga: Kuopion PS v JJK Jyvaskyla (Monday, 16:30) - Result: 2-0

Over/Under: At least three goals have been scored in 11/14 of Kuopion PS' home fixtures (six +3.5 goals) and also in 4/6 of JJK Jyvaskyla's away games against top-half sides since 2009 (three +3.5 goals). Further, more than two goals have been scored in 7/10 of the hosts home games against top-six teams since the start of last season (six +3.5 goals).

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.91, Various


To a unit stake, this week's Topline produced a 0.25 unit profit or a 4% profit on turnover.


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