Football / Preview / Topline 04 12 2010

Topline (04/12/2010)

This week's Topline contains 18 recommendations spread across Friday-Monday and includes a pick in Liverpool v Aston Villa.

Liverpool's Fernando Torres


GER2: Osnabruck v Paderborn (Fri, 17:00)

Promoted VfL Osnabruck have won 4/7 home matches this season with three W/Ws and three victories by two clear goals. Interestingly, three of their wins have come against teams currently in the top-four of the table so they can play well and they have failed to score in just one of the seven matches. The visitors have lost 6/7 on the road this season with their only victory coming at second-bottom Ingolstadt. Further, all of their last four defeats have been to nil. Paderborn have lost 13/21 away fixtures since 2009/10 when they have conceded.

Recommendation: VfL Osnabruck Win 2.20, Coral


Eredivisie: Groningen v Vit. Arnhem (Fri, 19:45)


Groningen come into this game in great form. They are undefeated at home this season having won all of their last seven such games. They hosts have also won all of their last six home games against bottom-six sides with six W/Ws and five victories by two clear goals. Vitesse have improved slightly in recent weeks, but they have lost all of their three away games against sides currently in the top-eight this term and they were also beaten by out-of-form Feyenoord. Moreover, they have lost 5/7 away games against top-six sides.

Recommendation: Groningen Win -1.5 2.60, Bet365


Serie A: Lazio v Inter Milan (Fri, 19:45)

Lazio are currently above Inter in the table but they have a terrible record against the Big Four as they’ve lost 7/10 such home games since 2008/09 whilst winning only once, and they’ve recently had a slight dip in form as they’ve won just once in their last five games (W1-D2-L2). Inter have won their last two matches and have won half their eight trips to top-six non-Big Four teams since 2008/09 whilst losing only once. Furthermore, they’ve won eight of the last nine matches between these sides.

Recommendation: Inter Milan Win DNB 1.91, William Hill


Portugal: Benfica v Olhanense (Fri, 20:15)

Benfica have kept a clean sheet in their last five home games but such a run is rare in this league (Benfica have done so only once before in the last five seasons). Olhanense may well stop the run this weekend because thy have scored in 7/11 away to top-six sides. Should they fail to score, Benfica may well make the over goals market on their own as they’ve scored four or more in 5/9 at home to bottom-half sides.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.75, Various


Championship: Cardiff v Preston (Sat, 15:00)

Cardiff have had W/Ws in six of their last 14 home matches against bottom-half teams and have been enjoying a superb season. Preston are rock bottom and have lost 18 of their last 25 away matches with 12 L/Ls, including five in seven trips to top-six teams.

Recommendation: Cardiff W/W 2.40, BWin


Championship: Leeds v Crystal Palace (Sat, 15:00)

Leeds have had +2.5 goals in 8/9 home games since their promotion with at least four in five of those games, and each of their last four matches hosting bottom-half teams have had three or more goals. Crystal Palace have had three or more goals in 8/10 away matches.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.91, William Hill


Turkey: Ankaragucu v Sivasspor (Sat, 15:00)

There’s plenty to suggest that Ankaragucu should pick up three points not least the fact that the visitors have conceded two or more in 5/7 away matches, but the win price is just a bit too short for us. More attractive are Over goals as both have had +2.5 goals in 4/7 home and away games respectively. 7/10 Sivasspor away matches at middle-third teams have had three or more goals (they’ve conceded in all 10) as have 7/9 Ankaragucu when scoring at home against bottom-six sides.

In fact, Sivasspor haven’t kept a clean sheet in any away game since the start of last season and whilst the hosts have won only 7/16 in the same period when scoring at home, 12/16 have been +2.5 goals.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.10, Various


La Liga: Levante v Atletico Madrid (Sat, 17:00)

There have been at  least three goals in five of Levante’s last six home games and in nine of their last 13 overall. Furthermore, they’ve conceded in their last eight matches and Atletico Madrid have had +2.5 goals in 11/17 away games when scoring since 2009/10.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.90, Betfair


Ligue 1: Arles v AS Nancy (Sat, 18:00)

Just as Le Havre and Metz have been in recent seasons, Arles look likely to be this season’s promoted whipping boys and are already eight points adrift at the bottom of Ligue 1. Scoring goals has been one of their problems, but having netted just three times in their first nine games they may have turned that corner as they’ve scored six in their last three home games.

Arles may well score again this weekend because both teams have scored in 6/7 Nancy away matches. 10/14 Nancy matches away to bottom-six teams have had three goals or more as have 18/22 when they’ve scored on the road; Arles have yet to keep a home clean sheet. 

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.20, Boylesports


Ligue 1: Lille v Lorient (Sat, 18:00)

Lille have been steadily improving in recent seasons and now trail leaders, Marseille, by just a point. Lorient have finished mid-table since their promotion four years ago and seem likely to do so again this term. Lille have won 5/7 at home to middle-third teams and overall 17 of their last 21 home games. 12 of 14 Lorient away defeats since the start of last season have been L/L as have 11/14 Lille home victories been W/W.

Recommendation: Lille W/W 2.45, William Hill


Eredivisie: VVV-Venlo v Roda JC (Sun, 13:30)

VVV-Venlo would be bottom of the Eredivisie were it not for Willem II. Willem have gained a paltry three points from 16 league games while Venlo have just nine. Interestingly, they are yet to draw a game. The hosts have lost 8/9 league games with their only positive result being a 4-1 victory over Willem – six of the defeats have been by two clear goals. They have also been beaten in 5/6 games hosting top-half non-Big Two sides. Roda have netted in all of their last six on the road, losing just once with three 2-1 victories. Furthermore, they have been successful in 5/7 away games against bottom-six opposition.

Recommendation: Roda Win 2.10, Bet365


Segunda: Elche v Salamanca (Sun, 16:00)

Elche have won 3/7 home matches this season but all of the victories came against teams currently in the bottom-six. Since the start of last season, the hosts have won just 2/7 home games against top-six opposition while Salamanca have lost just twice on the road this term. The visitors have also lost only 4/12 trips to middle-third sides.

Recommendation: Lay Elche Win 2.04, Betfair


Bundesliga: Nurnberg v B Dortmund (Sun, 16:30)

Both teams have scored in all six Nurnberg home games this season with the hosts scoring two or more in five. Dortmund have a 100% away record but something will have to give this weekend because Nurnberg have yet to lose at home.

Dortmund have scored two or more in all seven of their away matches and since the start of last season whenever they’ve scored or conceded on the road, over 55% of those matches have had four or more goals. Likewise against their respective opposition types, 4/6 Nurnberg and 5/8 Dortmund games since 2009/10 have had +3.5 goals.

Recommendation: +3.5 goals 2.80, Sportingbet


Denmark: Silkeborg v Brondby (Sun, 17:00)

5/8 of Silkeborg’s home matches this season have had +2.5 goals as have 6/9 of Brondby’s away games, but it is more interesting that both sides have both scored in 8/9 of the games and conceded in 8/9 of the games. Since the start of last season, 13/19 of Silkeborg’s home matches when conceding have had +2.5 goals (10 +3.5 goals) while the same has been true in 16/22 of Brondby’s away fixtures when they have failed to keep a clean sheet (nine +3.5 goals).

Recommendation: +2.75 goals 2.11, Pinnacle Sports


La Liga: Villarreal v Sevilla (Sun, 18:00)

Villarreal have won 18/22 home games including nine of their last 10 hosting top-half non-Big Two teams. Sevilla have lost 11 of their last 18 away games and last year they lost 5/7 trips to top-half non-Big Two teams. Top-six non-Big Two teams have won 60% of home games against top-half non-Big Two teams since 2005/06.

Recommendation: Villarreal win 1.91, Various


Serie A: Napoli v Palermo (Mon, 19:45)

There have been four or more goals in 7/13 Napoli home games and in half their last eight hosting top-half non-Big Four teams. Palermo’s matches have been the highest scoring in Serie A this season and they’ve had at least three goals in 13 of their last 15 road games with +3.5 goals in eight. Furthermore, there have been +2.5 goals in four of the last six meetings between these teams.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 1.95, Bet365


Premier League: Liverpool v Aston Villa (Mon, 20:00)

Liverpool have scored in all of their seven home matches under Roy Hodgson and they have lost just one of their games – a 2-1 defeat to newcomers Blackpool. Four of their matches have seen at least three goals which has included three of their four when they have conceded. Aston Villa have kept just two clean sheets in their 10 league games under Gerard Houlier and they have conceded at least two goals in all of their last four such matches (three +3.5 goals). 12/16 of Liverpool’s home matches against bottom-half sides since the start of last season have had +2.5 goals as have 3/4 of Villa’s trips to the Big Four over the same period.

Recommendation: +2.5 goals 2.00, Various









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