F1 / Preview / F1 In 2010

F1 in 2010

Although we have made substantial profits over the past four seasons, we have a concern about the 2010 season because of the new regulations.

Michael Schumacher

Bettorlogic's analysis over the past four seasons has been based on a study of the qualifying positions which  has proved to be the most effective way of returning a profit to our subscribers. A profit that has yielded a return of 68% over 122 fixed odds recommendations and a 42% profit on spreads.

Our concern for the 2010 season is based solely on the new rule that has removed refuelling during the race. There is a danger that this will give the driver from pole too great an advantage and therefore provide little value in the market if there is dominance from the front. The new rule will also have an impact on another profitable area; namely drivers who failed to make the third qualifying session but because of a fuel advantage under  2009 conditions  represented  value for a points finish.

With fuel parity throughout the grid, and whilst appreciating that other factors will come into play, such as tyre wear, prudence recommends that we should see just what happens during the first few races of the season to evaluate whether our analysis can deliver a profit or is merely supporting poor value.

In the meantime, something which we do believe will hold true, as it has done in all but one of the last 20 seasons, is that this season's champion will win one of the first two races of the season. Most probably that will be this weekend which is what 16 of the last 20 have done with two of the failures, retiring in the season's opener.

 

 
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